clipped from www.time.com

Whenever they begin, then, the withdrawals are unlikely to last very long. Many experts believe the threat of a wider civil war — and the regional instability that would follow — means that the U.S. cannot afford to reduce its presence in Iraq much below 130,000 troops for the next year and probably beyond that. And so it could turn out that just six months after the long-awaited drawdowns begin, they stop again.