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POPSUS military supplies allowed through Russia U.S. ground routes through Russia would likely cross into Kazakhstan and then Uzbekistan before entering northern Afghanistan. The United States has reached a preliminary deal with Kazakhstan to use its territory, and officials have said they are considering resuming military cooperation with Uzbekistan, which neighbors Afghanistan. That option is problematic for Washington: Uzbekistan kicked U.S. forces out of a base there after sharp U.S. criticism of the country's human rights record and the government's brutal quashing of a 2005 uprising.
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POPSTurkey takes go slow approach to former Soviet states It’s unlikely that Turkey would ever be in position to become a strategic partner of Russia’s due to Ankara’s desire to gain influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Erdem said. But, he added, that fact doesn’t preclude expanded commercial ties with the Kremlin. Russia recently became Turkey’s largest trading partner, he pointed out. Erdem voiced understanding for Russia’s position on the potential expansion of NATO into Georgia and Ukraine, as well as for Moscow’s concern over US plans to build missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.
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POPSEU seeks to increase influence in former Soviet areas Beyond the signal that the EU wants to reinforce its presence in the Caucasus and Black Sea regions, the success of the initiative depends on concrete achievements. "The ground is prepared, but a lot depends on what happens in tangible terms,"
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POPSAbkhazia asserts control over Kodori Gorge in dispute with Georgia Dzhonua scoffed at Tbilisi’s assertions that Georgian forces stationed in the Upper Kodori Gorge had been acting in a law-enforcement capacity, rather than as regular soldiers. "Police don’t need bunkers, grenade launchers howitzer batteries," Dzhonua said. "Do your police in America need this? ? Everything that was needed to start a war, it was all there." Georgian officials were in Geneva for the October 15 talks with Russia and were not immediately available to respond to Abkhaz allegations. Abkhaz officials say that a ban has been put on media visits to the Upper Kodori Gorge so long as unexploded ordnance remains in the area. "There’re a lot of mines, unexploded ammunition, explosive devices, so we stopped journalists from visiting," de facto Deputy Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Gari Kupalba told Western reporters on September 30.
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POPSGeorgia closes air space to Russia "If Georgia doesn’t provide an air corridor, Russia will find alternative ways of supplying its military base here," Aghabekian told EurasiaNet. "After all, Russia is bound by an agreement with Armenia that commits it to keeping the base combat-ready and on high alert. Russia will resort to any method to honor that obligation."
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POPSEthnic Georgians face citizenship dilemma in Abkhazia Not all Gali residents are concerned with the passport situation. Zura B., an unemployed man who asked not to be identified, said he would probably take an Abkhaz passport since he cannot visit Moscow with his Georgian passport. "They won’t take away my Georgian passport and I won’t swear to anything. There are ways to get around such things," Zura said.
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POPSTajikistan asks Russia to extradite activist Tajik officials have long been interested in muzzling Atovullo, but Moscow had not been receptive to the idea of shipping him back to Dushanbe - at least until very recently. Conditions have changed dramatically in the weeks following Russia’s incursion into Georgia, the Vremya Novostei article suggested. Seeking as much diplomatic support as possible for its diplomatic positions in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia now seems much more interested in making sure Rahmon is happy. Observers in Moscow have noted that, to date, the Tajik government has remained silent on Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Dushanbe’s reticence could be a ploy to extract maximum political and economic benefits from the Kremlin
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POPSGeorgia better be careful who they trust During a recent trade mission to Georgia, Ambassador John K. Veroneau, stressed the American government’s commitment to helping the Georgian economy regain traction. " he I spoke with are very bullish on Georgia’s future," Veroneau told EurasiaNet. "I think they see Georgia as a very strong market to be in for the long term."
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POPSPutin warns Ukraine over arms Pointing to a report published in Russia's Izvestiya newspaper this week, Mr Putin said Ukrainian weapons and military experts may have been used in combat against Russian troops during the brief war with Georgia in August. "If this is confirmed, this will be what I have called a crime, because this is termed 'direct involvement in an armed conflict', pitting the Russian and Ukrainian peoples against each other," he added. If Russia received proof of Ukraine's military involvement, Moscow would "build its relations accordingly with those who allowed this to happen", he said. Ms Tymoshenko said she was confident that "such facts not be confirmed".
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POPSRussia seeks linkage of Georgia and Iran issues Putin’s comments made it clear to policy-makers in Tehran that the Iranian nuclear issue is nothing more than a bargaining chip in Moscow’s eyes. If the West made concessions to Russia on Georgia, the Kayhan commentary noted, Moscow could be expected to cooperate with the West against Iran.
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POPSThree major points from Russian-Georgian war
The West appears to have underestimated the strength of the Kremlin’s negative reaction toward NATO’s eastward expansion. Russia’s reluctant acquiescence to the Baltic states’ joining the Atlantic alliance was clearly misleading: Moscow did make some noise, but it was in no position to take any active measures of resistance, as Russia back then was still relatively weak. For the Kremlin, the establishment of a NATO foothold in Georgia would be an intolerable development that could spark a domino effect across the Caucasus. It would start with the internationalization of peace process in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, causing Russia to lose its monopoly on "peacekeeping" operations, and culminate with Moscow losing control over the South Caucasus - with the grave consequences for stability in Russia’s volatile North Caucasus autonomous republics. To prevent this from happening, the Kremlin "preempted" the Western move and, in a risky gambit, radically changed the situation on the ground.
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POPSOSCE talks on observers for Georgia stalled Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaking in Tskhinvali recently said "There is no sense in monitoring agreements that Saakashvili broke," He also said that, from Moscow’s viewpoint, it is now up to "independent and sovereign" South Ossetia to decide whether to let the OSCE monitors redeploy. "Russia is a member of the OSCE and, as such, we guarantee that no longer will issues concerning South Ossetia be discussed at the OSCE in the absence of Tskhinvali’s representatives,"
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POPSTurkey torn between NATO and Russia Ian Lesser, an expert on Turkey at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, wrote in a recent policy paper. "In theory, Turkey’s proximity to the crisis and desire to play a larger diplomatic role in the Black Sea could make Turkey a lynchpin of NATO strategy in Georgia, especially if rapprochement with Armenia is part of the equation. But Turkish willingness to place its territory at the service of Western policy in Georgia is highly uncertain."
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POPSSerbia convinces UN to reconsider Kosovo Analyst Dusan Janjic said it remained to be seen when a vote would be put on the crowded UN agenda. He said that in the light of Iraq, Iran and Georgia and the delicate relationship between the United States and Russia, Serbia’s Kosovo resolution was a marginal topic and might well be left until next year. "We shouldn’t therefore draw a wrong conclusion," Janjic said. "We should push ahead with our initiative, but without using too much energy," he added. Serbia decided to ask for the opinion of the ICJ, after the United States and most European Union countries recognised Kosovo's independence despite Belgrade’s opposition. A total of 47 countries worldwide have so far recognised Kosovo.
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POPSNATO to Georgia-war with Russia won't stop membership push Moscow, however, takes a different line. The Kremlin has made clear that it believes that a NATO membership for Georgia would pose a threat to its own security, and has categorically denounced the country's NATO aspirations. The Alliance, for its part, has refused to restore ties with the Kremlin until Russian troops withdraw from Georgia's disputed territories in compliance with the August 12 European Union-brokered peace deal.
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POPSAzerbaijan tries to walk tightrope with Russia Some Azerbaijani officials are evidently concerned that if Baku expressed support for Georgia, then Azerbaijan’s own efforts to regain control of Karabakh would suffer. During the Moscow visit, Russian officials reassured Aliyev that he need not be concerned about Karabakh - yet. Medvedev stressed that the Kremlin did not see a connection between Karabakh and Georgia’s separatist entities. "Russia’s position has not changed," Medvedev said, referring to the Karabakh peace process. "We also support continuation of direct talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents." Neither Aliyev nor Medvedev touched on the possible Russian large-scale purchase of Azerbaijani gas. Experts in Baku believe that Aliyev’s administration has yet to reach a decision on the matter, and is playing for time.
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POPSGeorgia's war planning questioned Similarly, soldiers who fought in South Ossetia suggest that decisions about Georgian army movements were made on the fly. At worst, a proxy confrontation with Russian forces -- akin to the first South Ossetian conflict in 1991-1992 -- was considered, said Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia. After the debacle of Russia’s two wars in Chechnya, no one thought that Moscow would further risk its international reputation by invading a sovereign country, said Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia. "We expected that the Russians would fight with the hands of the separatists," Lomaia told EurasiaNet.
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POPSMedvedev calls Georgia's attack "Russia's 9/11" “We must build a new security system based on international law, not on the might-is-right rule,” he said. Russia is no longer frail and weak, as it was in the 1990s, and will forge ties, including in the defence field, with any state that wants to be friends with it, whether somebody likes it or not, Mr. Medvedev asserted. As he spoke reports came that the Russian and Syrian naval commanders were discussing in Moscow plans for a Russian naval base in Syria, while Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki began talks with his Russian counterpart. A day earlier Russia’s long-range nuclear bombers flew on a training mission to America’s sworn enemy Venezuela. Russia and its Central Asian allies — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — will set up a large military force to fend off possible attacks in the region, the head of the Russia-led defence pact announced on Friday. General Nikolai Bordyuzha, Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisatio
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POPSEU,Sarkozy seek to reassure the Ukraine Fears have been raised that Ukraine, which has rocky relations with Russia, could find itself in a similar position to Georgia over South Ossetia. Ukraine's Crimea region, like South Ossetia, is home to a significant Russian population. It also hosts a Russian naval base, which President Yushchenko has made clear he would rather not be there. For the EU, Ukraine remains a key energy transit route and is seen as vital to the union's long-term security and energy strategy.
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POPSRussia seeks arms embargo on Georgia Lavrov also said Russia would maintain dialogue with the United States as long as there is even the slightest chance of reaching an understanding of each other's positions.
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POPSGeorgia breaks ties with Russia Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said Moscow regretted Tbilisi's decision. "The possible end of diplomatic relations with Georgia is not the choice of Moscow, and Tbilisi will have to bear the entire responsibility," the state-controlled Tass news agency reported him as saying.
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POPSRussia receives unexpected rebuke from SCO SCO-Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Moscow also seems to be growing desperate in its search for diplomatic support. On August 28, Belarus, a pariah state that has close relations with Russia, indicated that it would soon follow Moscow in recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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