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POPSWhy Obama Isn't Necessarily Dead Articles like this are a necessary counterweight to media coverage that forgets that the next election isn't being held today. I disagree with the author's third reason for skepticism, though. Basically, presidential elections are referenda on the national mood, in which little about the opposition matters. If things aren't going well enough, the incumbent party loses. Frankly, unless the Republicans run somebody with bipartisan charisma or a national hero in 2012, the identity and platform of Obama's opponent won't matter. I'm not sure we have any universal national heroes out there, and this "partisan age" doesn't produce people with bipartisan charisma.
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POPSEvangelicals may go Democratic If a fair number of evangelicals were to actually vote for a liberal like Obama in the general election, that would mark a sea change in U.S. politics. I can't help but worry that Hell would also freeze over.
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POPSIt's over, and the Democrats win I couldn't clip the entire 13 Keys system in detail and stay under the sharing limit, but check it out in the full article. The only problem with the columnist's analysis is that he forgets to mention that the 13 keys only predict the winner of the popular vote. It doesn't predict the Electoral College winner (and thus doesn't always predict the actual president).
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POPSDennis Hastert's seat goes to Democrat Oddly enough, this development may be a good argument for not putting Obama on the ticket if Clinton comes back to win. If the downstate areas of Illinois are going Democratic, the party really doesn't have to worry about Illinois' electoral votes in the fall.
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POPSRed state turning blue (maybe) I've been wondering over the past couple of years whether the 2006 Democratic victories in Ohio were just about Coingate, and this could provide some answers. The fact that Clinton was leading in polls of Democratic party voters before the primary indicates that her victory probably wasn't due to party switching. Second, turnout for Democratic primaries and caucuses was higher even early on in the process, when both parties' nominations were up in the air.
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POPSCQ Analyisis: Race and Gender in 2008 Presidential Election I find this analysis kind of amusing when it comes to Southern Ohio. This state has elected women to statewide office before, including a Republican attorney general. Furthermore, the Republican nominee for governor last year was a black man, J. Kenneth Blackwell. Ohio Republicans have no problem voting for either women or minorities. This sounds like another attempt by the political class to blame the potential failure of liberal politics to capture votes on such things like race and gender (see, Jesse Jackson c. 1984 and 1988).
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