I saw this posted on Slate, and just want to make a comment about the math.

The "extraordinary odds" of a 43-year-old conceiving naturally are only 1-3 (or maybe 5)% in a given month, says the article.

Question: what are the odds in two months? This is just a basic probability question. What are the odds of not getting pregnant two months in a row? Say there's a 5 percent chance of getting pregnant, there's a 95% chance of not getting pregnant. The odds of not getting pregnant for two months are thus (.95*.95=.9025). So there's a .05 chance in one month but a .0975 chance of pregnancy in two months. For three months it's (.95*.95*.95=.857). For a three month affair, that'd be a 14.43% chance of pregnancy. Still unlikely but not really extraordinary.

Say an affair lasts for 16 months, from February 2006 to May 2007 perhaps. At 3 percent per month, the math works to a 41% chance of getting pregnant. At 5% it's a 59% chance of pregnancy.

"Extraordinary odds"? The math says not