 jklugman says: Time to put your money where your mouth is. It says a lot about your concept of global warming that you believe this prove anything, but even if it did, you would be racking up some debt with me. July temperature departures from normal for my zip July 1: -2 July 2: -2 July 3: -4 July 4: -2 July 5: 0 July 6: -3 July 7: -3 July 8: -2 July 9: +1 July 10: 0 July 11: -4 July 12: +1 July 13: -2 July 14: -3 July 15: +2 July 16: -2 July 17: -4 July 18: - 11 WOW! July 19: -12 Even bigger WOW! July 20: -11 source You do the math.. What's that a net minus 5 degrees departure from normal. You wanna make the bet 25 ... Also, at the link..notice the years of the record highs and record lows. Factor in the lows, jeez look at those lows. Man, this doesn't look good for your prospects. It says a lot about your concept of global warming that you believe this prove anything, but even if it did, you would be racking up some debt with me.I never said it proved anything. If you go the original article you would see Silver is pointing out the folly of looking at a particularly cold day and saying "global warming can't be happening!" In fact, you're doing the same thing as those bloggers Silver is addressing. You cherry-pick the data to suit your agenda. If you look at June 2009, there were 22 days in Franklin TN when the daily temperature was 1 degree above the average, and five days when it was below. In the short run, Silver might owe you money for July... May (Nashville): 18 days above average, 12 days below average April (Nashville): 12 days above average, 15 days below average March (Nashville): 20 days above average, 11 days below average February (Nashville): 14 days above average, 13 days below average January (Nashville): 10 days above average, 21 days below average All told, combining the Franklin data for July and June and the Nashville data for Jan-May there were 99 days above average and 92 days below average. source (go to Observed Weather-->CF6 reports) Well, it just goes to show the absurdity of measuring temps in cities subject to the heat island effect (Someone hasn't been reading amgumen's fine clips on this subject). Anyway, I don't live in Nashville, so that is not a part of the "put your money where your mouth is" challenge. But, that's not really the point is it? Since you are a sociologist, the more accurate temps of suburbs, open and unoccupied plains, troposphere, ocean surfaces don't matter as much as the temps from major cities. If you clicked on the link I'd provided, you would have seen that I gave Nashville data because the National Weather Service was only providing data on Nashville, Clarksville, and Crossvile. It had nothing to do with my occupation. (To readers: Franklin is a suburb of Nashville). But, it turns out that if you compare the data you give us on Franklin's temperatures to that of Nashville (from the same source you used, Accuweather) you will see that the temperatures and departure data are EXACTLY the same. July 21: -10 OK, JK, This has been fun, disregarding how idiotic it is, but you should also look at the lows. Also, please observe when the record highs and record lows were observed. willhelm said:1. You expect me to believe that you would have bothered to show us the data for your hometown had the temperatures been ABOVE average? 2. All I'm doing is just showing reinforcing Nate Silver's point about the poor logic of PowerLine Blog (see the original article). You yourself say its idiotic, so I'm not sure why you are giving me a hard time. They are not above average you blow hard. They may be above average for the infinitesimally small time period you chose to base your broad conclusions. I was just answering the challenge by starting with the current month. You went back to some arbitrary point in time to try and make a case, which is entirely absurd for numerous reasons. You are the one cherry-picking (because you are a sociologist), not I. Shall we continue? July 21: -10 July 22: -8 July 23: -6 July 24: -5 July 25: -1 July 26: -2 July 27: -2 July 28: -8 These are some quite glaring deviations. They are not above average you blow hard.You're not getting my point. If this clip was posted in June, you probably would have checked your town's data, saw the temperatures would have been above average during the month, and kept your mouth shut. JK said, after picking an arbitrary point in time that was adequate for him to believe he was making a valid point : All told, combining the Franklin data for July and June and theSince you made this comment, there have been 9 more below average days. Time to try and go back a little further to see if you can stack up some more numbers from some other arbitrary point in time. Mr. cherry-picker. If this clip was posted in June, you probably would have checked yourMaybe I would. Either way, It would not prove anthropogenic global warming exists or does not exist. What I would not do is cherry pick from some arbitrary point in time to try and prove you wrong. We could each play the "going back one or two month" game. I didn't. You did. You did it because you are dishonest, as any good sociologist should be. Congrats. Either way, It would not prove anthropogenic global warming exists or does not exist.Yep. Which is the original point of this clip, arguing against global warming skeptics who point to a cold day and essentially say, "global warming my ass!" If you are saying those kind of arguments are bunk, then you got no beef with me. Time to try and go back a little further to see if you can stack up some more numbers from some other arbitrary point in time. Mr. cherry-picker.But I don't need to cherry picked. If you look at temperatures throughout the twentieth century, you see an upward trend.[1] Yep. Which is the original point of this clip, arguing against globalThat is generally done in jest. What is not done in jest is blaming every weather event like katrina, any hurricane for that matter, any particular drought, tornado outbreak, strong hurricane season, weak hurricane season, or freakin' toothache on anthropogenic global warming. Don't try to say I or the rationalists want it both ways. We DO NOT. This clip is evidence that you do. That is generally done in jest.Do you realize that you're saying that global warming deniers make patently stupid arguments just for laughs? No, I'm saying they (the rationalists) from time to time make jokes about the weather. Jokes are not arguments. Most thinking people know this. I'm also saying that you, other idiot Leftists, and scientifically ignorant blow-hards, and your everyday general useful idiot makes all the arguments you claim that rationalists make to a degree that is utterly head-spinning and bizarrely fanatical. Do you have any idea how utterly shameless and insincere you come across on this thread? Jokes are not arguments.In other words, heads I win, tails you lose. No. in other words, you don't know the difference between jokes and arguments because you are sociologist. You believe that because some radio guy quips about the lunacy of global warming because it is 50 degrees in July, he is making a fraudulent argument. Yet, we have this. You scientifically illiterate hacks are a hoot. July 2009: 4 days above average, 25 days below average, YTD: 103 days above average, 117 below average LOL. You are freakin hilarious. First you don't like the fact that I start with the month we are in, so you count back to June because the numbers tighten ( as would be the case anytime you are stacking up averages ). Now that the numbers have continued to pile up against you, you go back to January. You are crackin' me up! |
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