Why the Numbers Don't Add Up in Iraq
BAGHDAD — In this besieged capital, it was a rare good-news story: Killings had plummeted by as much as 50% [last month] after the sectarian bloodbath of July.
Last week, Iraqi officials released new figures showing the city morgue had received more than 1,500 victims of violent death in August — a significant drop of about 17% from the record of more than 1,800 killings in July, but hardly a great leap forward.

How the U.S. military arrived at the 50% figure remains a mystery. Commanders won't release the ...

Why the Numbers Don't Add Up in Iraq
BAGHDAD — In this besieged capital, it was a rare good-news story: Killings had plummeted by as much as 50% [last month] after the sectarian bloodbath of July.
Last week, Iraqi officials released new figures showing the city morgue had received more than 1,500 victims of violent death in August — a significant drop of about 17% from the record of more than 1,800 killings in July, but hardly a great leap forward.

How the U.S. military arrived at the 50% figure remains a mystery. Commanders won't release the raw data, saying such specifics could help the enemy.
Government agencies here rarely keep reliable statistics....The U.S. military's fondness for secrecy clash[es] with the brass' demands for "metrics" to quantify any progress.

This tension often leads to curious contortions of numbers and nomenclature.

During weekly news briefings ..., commanders regularly display slick charts, multicolored bar graphs and PowerPoint presentations, all heralding good news.

"One more indicator that operations are in fact reducing the amount of attacks on civilians is shown here on this graph," Caldwell assured reporters the other day, pointing to a bar chart dutifully placed on an easel by a stone-faced uniformed subordinate. But all the numbers had been carefully scrubbed. They were classified.
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One of the most reliable barometers of the bloodshed here has been the monthly numbers report from the Baghdad morgue, where coffins strapped to car roofs arrive hourly, and residents trying to identify loved ones look through gruesome autopsy photos.

Last week, health officials unveiled a change in morgue policy: All requests for statistics would henceforth be routed through the Health Ministry. Morgue officials who previously provided details have abruptly "retired" or left the country.