The Evolutionary Brain Glitch That Makes Terrorism Fail

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	The Evolutionary Brain Glitch That Makes Terrorism Fail

Mikez

7-12-2007 4:49 AM

347 views

tags:

correspondent inference theory, terrorism, cognitive bias

Mikez says:

Please read the whole article the clip here doesn't do it justice.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/d9bd6c0c-6cc5-4c3a-994b-15c49fdbc76f/F51A290C-2E18-42A2-8857-86E5B9955720/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.wired.com/politics/security/commentary/securitymatters/2007/07/securitymatters_0712" href="http://www.wired.com/politics/security/commentary/securitymatters/2007/07/securitymatters_0712" style="font-size: 11px;">www.wired.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.wired.com/politics/security/commentary/securitymatters/2007/07/securitymatters_0712"><P>
I found this interesting analysis in a paper by Max Abrams in <CITE>International Security</CITE>.  "<A href="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec.2006.31.2.42">Why Terrorism Does Not Work</A>" (.PDF) analyzes the political motivations of 28 terrorist groups: the complete list of "foreign terrorist organizations" designated by the U.S. Department of State since 2001. He lists 42 policy objectives of those groups, and found that they only achieved them 7 percent of the time.  
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According to the data, terrorism is more likely to work if 1) the terrorists attack military targets more often than civilian ones, and 2) if they have minimalist goals like evicting a foreign power from their country or winning control of a piece of territory, rather than maximalist objectives like establishing a new political system in the country or annihilating another nation. But even so, terrorism is a pretty ineffective means of influencing policy.
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