Letter: Peak Oil Is Here, Sort of


	Letter: Peak Oil Is Here, Sort of

kmcolo

5-18-2007 6:05 PM

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tags:

oil, energy, opec, exxonmobil

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/f4e2e8bb-1d2d-47b6-b870-18469b90d6c9/E55EFC54-5F2C-45FB-8E37-90A8421F15B5/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5827/980b?etoc" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5827/980b?etoc" style="font-size: 11px;">www.sciencemag.org</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5827/980b?etoc">
Much, but not all, of the political uncertainty regarding production rates can be captured by partitioning conventional oil extraction into OPEC and non-OPEC components. This has been done by ExxonMobil and others (<A href="#ref1">1</A>-<A href="#ref4">4</A>); ExxonMobil has concluded that non-OPEC production will peak by 2010. On the basis of this forecast, ExxonMobil has publicly stated that it will build no new refineries, presumably because the crude supplies needed may not be available from OPEC producers.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5827/980b?etoc"><div align="center"><img src="http://content8.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/www.sciencemag.org/img/9D9C15D3-FEB7-41FB-B628-E07E0AB98CB3" alt="Figure 1" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5827/980b?etoc">The high and rapidly fluctuating U.S. gasoline prices currently being experienced are due in large part to a shortage of domestic refinery capacity, so that we are in fact already feeling the effects of an imminent non-OPEC peak.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5827/980b?etoc">Over the next two or three years, it will become clear that crude oil is indeed a finite resource, and we will be forced to adapt to much higher petroleum prices as India and China continue to expand their automobile and airline fleets.</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/E55EFC54-5F2C-45FB-8E37-90A8421F15B5/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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