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Stock Market Bull's best friend
deb2012
follow
4
5-4-2008 10:59 PM
227 views
tags:
stocks
,
economy
deb2012
says:
following the yield curve
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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/ba782f56-1cbd-462b-b0c9-59484ccb25d3/E3369468-45EA-4D53-915E-1B119168C661/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html" href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html" style="font-size: 11px;">www.tradersnarrative.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html"><div align="center"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/www.tradersnarrative.com/img/D5419C87-2313-4DE2-ACDB-39B5C77E9648" alt="yield curve comparison 2007 top and 2008 rate cut" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html"><P RTuCc="0" UDX7T="0">According to the editor of the Systems & Forecasts <A id="KonaLink4" href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html#" ><FONT color="#2277dd"><SPAN>newsletter</SPAN></FONT></A>, Marvin Appel, the S&P 500 performs best when the difference between the 10 year treasury note and the 90 T-Bill is between 1.41% and 2.57% with the following week providing an unheard of 13.3% return.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html"><P RTuCc="2" UDX7T="0">What today’s yield curve is telegraphing is that the economy is about to kick into gear (again). A steep yield curve is usually observed at the end of a <A href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/we-are-in-a-recession-841.html" RTuCc="0" UDX7T="0">recession</A> and/or just before major economic expansion. Sure, that may sound like crazy talk with all the bad news floating around. But that is how the market works. Everything is priced in. The <A id="KonaLink5" href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html#" ><FONT color="#2277dd"><SPAN>bond </SPAN><SPAN>market</SPAN></FONT></A> is, for the first time, holding the 90 day T-Bill rates steady even as the Fed lowers rates to meet it. </P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/fed-delivers-steep-yield-curve-a-bulls-best-friend-1665.html"><P RTuCc="2" UDX7T="0">Looks like the <A href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/why-bernanke-isnt-finished-cutting-by-a-longshot-1554.html" RTuCc="0" UDX7T="0">puppy finally is willing to get caught</A>. The gap between the 90 day T-Bill and the Fed rate is now down to just 54 basis points.</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;"> </td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/E3369468-45EA-4D53-915E-1B119168C661/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>
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