Half Of US Homeowners Will Be Underwater By 2011


	Half Of US Homeowners Will Be Underwater By 2011

merrie

8-17-2009 10:19 PM

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25million next year, karen weaver deutsche bank analyst, today 14million mortgages underwater

merrie says:

NOW: 14 Million Underwater NEXT YEAR: 25 Million

The three bars on the left show three estimates for the number of underwater households at the end of Q1.

The two bars on the right show two estimates for next year. DB takes a much more dour view than President Obama's favorite economist, Mark Zandi at Economy.com.

Source: Deutsche Bank

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color:#e5e5e5;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/35cef40c-f61d-42fe-aace-5e278f0d5dd1/E0CE44B7-365C-4E70-83D9-42A8BE63BC37/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8" style="font-size: 11px;">www.businessinsider.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><P>Before we go into the details, here's a basic refresher on the US housing market:</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">There are approximately 110 million households in the U.S. </LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">About 75.5 million of these are homeowners. </LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">Approximately 68% of the 76 million, or 51.6 million, have mortgages.</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">14 million U.S. homeowners, 27% of those with mortgages, were underwater at the end of Q1 (DB estimates)</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">DB estimates that nearly half of the 52 million <A href="#" class="kLink" target="undefined" id="KonaLink1"><FONT color="#1d637d"><SPAN class="kLink">mortgagors</SPAN></FONT></A> will be underwater by the end of next year.</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><P>DB's estimates are based on city-level projections of where house prices will bottom.  DB made these projections before the startlingly good Case Shiller numbers last month.  If the Case Shiller numbers herald a recovery, as many bulls suggest, then DB's "underwater" forecasts may be too aggressive.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><P>On the other hand, if the June Case Shiller numbers were just a head-fake, as we and other analysts suspect, then DB's estimates will probably be right on the <A href="#" class="kLink" target="undefined" id="KonaLink2"><FONT color="#1d637d"><SPAN class="kLink">money</SPAN></FONT></A>.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><H1><A href="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8/now-14-million-underwater-next-year-25-million-1">SEE THE DETAILS &gt;</A></H1></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><H2 class="slide-title">NOW: 14 Million Underwater  NEXT YEAR: 25 Million</H2></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8"><div align="center"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/www.businessinsider.com/img/CE857608-AC0C-445A-8D0D-C46C52C01580" alt="NOW: 14 Million Underwater  NEXT YEAR: 25 Million" /></div></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/E0CE44B7-365C-4E70-83D9-42A8BE63BC37/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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