Which states to watch: Out of 10,000 simulations, McCain wins 624. "there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

But, according to the average of polls, McCain is behind by 6% in Virginia, Penn. and Colorado, 8% lead in Nevada and even ahead in Florida and Ohio

Of course there is always a chance for things to change.
But -- considering the odds, I still wouldn't risk a $624 bet to win $10,000 -- it strikes me as a losing bet.

Since PA and VA (and NC) are on the East Coast, we should be able to know in about 28 hours which way the wind blows.

Breaking: Obama has announced that his grandmother in Hawaii passed away.

Looks like you can retire this clip. Stand by for four years of pissing and moaning from the wingnuts.