 merrie says: The latest Arctic heat wave is not identical to the last " firstly it is higher, by maybe 20% in some places, and secondly, the hot-spots are different. But one thing is clear " it is driven by two distinctive factors " a 14% increase in clouds over the North Pole and Beaufort Sea between 1980-2000, and the incursion of warm Atlantic water under the ice and into the Beaufort Gyre. The rapid summer ice loss is due to melting from above (infra red from the clouds) and below (warm Atlantic water). The strength of the Beaufort Gyre determines how far Atlantic water penetrates the Arctic " when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is warm and Alaskan Shelf winds are low, the gyre weakens and may reverse flow; when cold (as it has been since late 2006), the Alaskan interior cools, the winds strengthen and the gyre strengthens accordingly " there is a lag of a few years. Thus, this domino effect from the Pacific will eventually reach the area between Greenland and Norway and summer sea-ice . . . . ought to return to the long-term norm (unless there really is a strong greenhouse element – which I can’t see it greater than the difference between this warm period and the last – ie about 20%) and unless there is an even steeper decline in global temperatures due to the quiet sun effect. On the latter – there is a body of evidence that during quiet solar periods, the jetstream is shifted along with Arctic pressure systems that lead to blocking high pressure over Iceland – sending the jetstream further south and cooling western Europe. The eastern seaboard of the USA gets a little warmer, but the mid-West suffers late springs, dry summers, and bitter winters – not good for the bre... |
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