The Law of Accelerating Returns -- Singularity


	The Law of Accelerating Returns -- Singularity

AcesLucky

11-15-2007 2:13 PM

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tags:

science, singularity, artificial intelligence, evolution, brain, knowledge, technology

AcesLucky says:

What happens when the machines we build are smarter than us? Will immortality be just around the corner, as we merge biological with machine?

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/b3cdaf75-4e59-4a0c-b772-fc74a475869e/B95945CE-3A45-45C7-8A48-039811D614BF/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1" href="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1" style="font-size: 11px;">www.kurzweilai.net</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1"><SPAN class="Title">The Law of Accelerating Returns</SPAN></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1">An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1">The <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Software')">software</A> is even more <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Salient')">salient</A>. One of the principal assumptions underlying the expectation of the <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Singularity')">Singularity</A> is the ability of <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Nonbiological')">nonbiological</A> mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Human')">human</A> <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Thinking')">thinking</A>.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1">Ultimately, billions of <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Nonbiological')">nonbiological</A> entities can be the master of all <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Human')">human</A> and <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Machine')">machine</A> acquired <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Knowledge')">knowledge</A>.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1">There is no <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Reason')">reason</A> why we cannot reverse <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Engine')">engine</A>er the <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Human')">human</A> <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Brain')">brain</A>, and essentially copy its design.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1">How will we apply <A class="thought" href="javascript:loadBrain('Technology')">technology</A> that is more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to respond "Carefully!"</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/B95945CE-3A45-45C7-8A48-039811D614BF/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>