If violence is down in Baghdad, analysts said, it is likely because the Shiite militias operating there are waiting out the buildup in U.S. troops, nearly all of whom are being deployed in the capital. At the same time, Sunni insurgents have escalated their operations elsewhere.

I think it is too soon to tell.

I hope by some miracle that there is progress. Otherwise the mess we've made of the region is going to bite us back very hard.