Bernanke's Crystal Ball


	Bernanke's Crystal Ball

JICWyllie

5-7-2009 10:36 AM

136 views

tags:

1-bailouts, 1-depression, 1-policy, 2-consequences, 2-failure, 3-forecast, 4-uk, 4-us

JICWyllie says:

The "much worse" is liable to be hyperinflation

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/5023206b-dbba-4f3c-9d4b-2fbcf4a62ce6/B354FA89-8A0B-467A-8B5B-CF1C43D523D7/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/" href="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/" style="font-size: 11px;">dailyreckoning.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/"><STRONG>“Economy contracts ‘faster than in the 1930s,’”</STRONG> says a headline 
in today’s <EM>Financial Times</EM></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/"><P>Equity losses last year were worse than those of ’29. <STRONG>It stands to reason that the next phase – the economic decline – will also be worse than the ’30s.</STRONG></P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/"><P>By our calculation, the U.S. economy carries about $20 trillion of excess debt. Until that debt is eliminated, the idea of a healthy boom is a mirage. Getting rid of that debt either involves a long, hard period of work and sacrifice – as debts are paid down. Or, it involves something much worse.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/"><P>Our guess is that the feds – who still have no idea what is going on – will choose the second solution…something much worse.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://dailyreckoning.com/bernankes-crystal-ball/"><P>The story is not much different in the United States. GDP is falling at a 6% annual rate. If this continues for a few years, it will make this depression worse than the Great Depression of the ’30s – which hit America much harder than it did Britain (probably thanks to the forceful response of the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations).</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/B354FA89-8A0B-467A-8B5B-CF1C43D523D7/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>