Recession Odds Down to 17%


	Recession Odds Down to 17%

muckdog

7-24-2008 12:52 AM

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muckdog says:

We haven't had even one quarter of negative GDP, and estimates for the next GDP release are coming in above 2%.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/27145ac1-4816-49bd-9176-becffd289440/B3431F36-FD7C-4BAC-B481-73EDA5F2B3EE/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=301704704404591&secure=1&show=1&rss=1" href="http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=301704704404591&secure=1&show=1&rss=1" style="font-size: 11px;">www.ibdeditorials.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=301704704404591&secure=1&show=1&rss=1"><div align="center"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/www.ibdeditorials.com/img/55C6C7F1-8D41-4EAB-A9A5-4A41C125A77B" alt="" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=301704704404591&secure=1&show=1&rss=1">But the prevailing gloomy consumer sentiment seems to be at odds with what's actually happening right now in the economy, at least as far as the data go.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=301704704404591&secure=1&show=1&rss=1"><P>John McCain's adviser, economist and former Sen. Phil Gramm, got canned for suggesting that the only recession we had was "mental."</p> <P>Turns out, he's right.</p> <P>The U.S. in the second quarter, while not booming, seems to be growing quite nicely, thank you. Not even close to recession.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=301704704404591&secure=1&show=1&rss=1"><P>A consensus estimate of economists by Bloomberg puts second-quarter GDP at about 2.2%. First Trust Advisors' Brian Wesbury, who is admittedly at the extreme end of the expectations spectrum, thinks GDP growth will be 3%.</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/B3431F36-FD7C-4BAC-B481-73EDA5F2B3EE/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content8.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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