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8-25-2009 12:17 AM
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merrie says:
“There are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing,” Roubini wrote. “Policy makers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

Government and central bank officials may undermine the recovery and tip their economies back into “stagdeflation” if they raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity in their systems to reduce fiscal deficits, Roubini says. He defines “stagdeflation” as recession and deflation.

Market Vigilantes

Those who maintain large budget deficits will be punished by bond market vigilantes, as inflationary expectations and yields on long-term government bonds rise and borrowing costs climb sharply, he wrote. That will in turn lead to stagflation, Roubini said.

European Central Bank officials led by President Jean- Claude Trichet are suggesting they won’t rush to reverse their emergency stimulus amid mounting evidence of an economic recovery. The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate
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8-25-2009 12:18 AM
merrie
. . . to a record 1 percent and is buying covered bonds and flooding banks with money.

“We see some signs confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall,” Trichet said at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22. This “does not mean at all that we do not have a very bumpy road ahead of us.”

When needed, the ECB will implement a “credible exit strategy” from its crisis policies, Trichet said.

‘Monetary Medicine’

The U.S. must address the massive amounts of “monetary medicine” that have been pumped into the financial system and now pose threats to the economy and the dollar, billionaire Warren Buffett said last week.

Roubini curre...
8-25-2009 12:20 AM
merrie
To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net
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