Based on historical patterns, America will hit a once-in-a-century national crisis within the decade...'like winter,' the crisis or 'fourth
turning' cannot be averted. It will last 20 years or so and bring hardship and upheavals similar to previous fourth turnings, such as the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II. The fourth turning is a perilous time because the result
could be a new 'golden age' for America or the beginning of the end.' 'It all will begin with a 'sudden spark' that catalyzes a crisis mood
'around the year 2005.'

Neil Howe, William Strauss, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, 1997, ISBN 0-553-06682-X