Weapons Of Math Deduction


	Weapons Of Math Deduction

debbyski

10-6-2007 12:41 PM

393 views

tags:

simple, yet, effective

3 Comments |

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10-6-2007 1:07 PM

jstates1

This is fascinating, though I still believe that probabilities are just a way to cover up our ignorance.

Great stuff!

10-9-2007 6:48 AM

zadoz

a discerning mind is more accurate

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/f9519f9c-1de7-4e65-bf10-9fea05ef0c86/85DF21EE-35B7-436A-8085-AA07365E7D6C/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction" href="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction" style="font-size: 11px;">www.motherjones.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction"><P>IT'S NOT THE SIZE OF THE ARMY; it's how you use it. That's the conclusion of a recent study by Patricia Sullivan, a professor at the University of Georgia, who has devised a simple yet effective statistical formula that correctly predicts the outcome of 78% of the conflicts plugged into it.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction"><SPAN><B>Pr = probability that an intervening nation will achieve its goals</B></SPAN>
Limited goals mean better odds. Sullivan calculates the U.S.'s chances of success in Vietnam were 22%. The 1991 Gulf War had a 93% chance of succeeding. </blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction"><B>i = intervention in question</B></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction"><SPAN><B>x, y = variables</B></SPAN><B>
<SPAN>ß = magnitude and direction of variables' effects</SPAN></B>
Sullivan's formula has several variables, including war aims, troop levels, alliances, and length of conflict. She found that as troop levels increase, the probability of successfully achieving political aims through force decreases.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2007/09/weapon-of-math-deduction.html?src=email&link=hed_20071005_ts2_Weapon%20of%20Math%20Deduction"><P>Pr(y<SUB>i</SUB>=1|x<SUB>i</SUB>) = 1/(1 + exp(-x<SUB>i</SUB> ß))</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/85DF21EE-35B7-436A-8085-AA07365E7D6C/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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