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How to Think About Govt Economic Reports
baydawg
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0
8-4-2009 10:38 AM
45 views
tags:
statistics
,
reliability
,
derivatives
,
inflation
,
gdp
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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/29082b76-08f5-4520-930a-f3c89b656435/802C7924-19CB-4F0E-AFAA-EF2D48E34561/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html" href="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html" style="font-size: 11px;">economicedge.blogspot.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">Believe the GDP report at your peril…</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">As I tell people in my seminars, I divide my data (or facts) into three buckets: good, murky, and unreliable.<BR />Into the good bucket I put all sources of data fitting the following important criteria: The data itself is not statistically massaged before release, it is not 'sampled' but rather tallied up in its entirety, and it squares up nicely with other good sources of data.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html"><P><B><SPAN>Good Data</SPAN> </B></P><BLOCKQUOTE>• Sales tax data<BR />• Income tax data<BR />• Truck tonnage moved<BR />• Port shipping container traffic<BR />• Air transport<BR />• UPS, FedEx, and other major shippers' volume<BR />• Corporate Revenues</BLOCKQUOTE></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">the murky data. This data is based on sampling, usually conducted by self-interested parties </blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html"><B><SPAN>Murky Data</SPAN></B> <BLOCKQUOTE>• NAR home sales data<BR />• Continuing claims<BR />• Retail sales data<BR />• Trade deficit reports<BR />• Corporate Income </BLOCKQUOTE></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">utterly unreliable 'data,'</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html"> New home sales data<BR />• Employment data (due to the Birth-Death model)<BR />• All survey data<BR />• Leading indicator data<BR />• GDP</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">INFLATION DATA</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">Unreliable</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">derivatives</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/chris-martenson-believe-gdp-report-at.html">UNKNOWABLE</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;"> </td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/802C7924-19CB-4F0E-AFAA-EF2D48E34561/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>
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