Climate Change Models


	Climate Change Models

hjharris

5-29-2007 5:58 AM

274 views

tags:

climate change

hjharris says:

I could have been convinced, but then it was all ruined by the claim to predict the stock market. Far to much "FAITH" is put into predictive models. AND people make far to many assumptions on the multi-variables acting as inputs.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/620254d9-4433-4661-bfc1-f5133c9670b8/7ECEBB90-8A72-4B1F-AFC7-5D945D853542/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649" href="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649" style="font-size: 11px;">environment.newscientist.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649"><DIV id="artHeadline"><H1 class="inline">Climate myths: We can't trust computer models </H1>
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17:00 16 May 2007
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NewScientist.com news service
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<li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;"><B>Fred Pearce</B></LI></UL></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649">Climate is average weather, and it can vary unpredictably only within the limits set by major influences like the Sun and levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649">The validity of models can be tested against climate history. If they can predict the past (which the best models are pretty good at) they are probably on the right track for predicting the future – and indeed <A target="ns" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/">have successfully done so</A>.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649">Climate modellers may <I>occasionally</I> be seduced by the beauty of their constructions and put too much faith in them. Where the critics of the models are both wrong and illogical, however, is in assuming that the models must be biased towards alarmism – that is, greater climate change. It is just as likely that these models err on the side of caution.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11649">the claim is sometimes made that if computer models were any good, people would be using them to predict the stock market. Well, they are!</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/7ECEBB90-8A72-4B1F-AFC7-5D945D853542/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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