Apologies: too Optimistic about US Recession


	Apologies: too Optimistic about US Recession

abailart

3-22-2008 5:40 AM

212 views

tags:

economics, economic depression, hedges, futures, deriratives

abailart says:

Ho hum.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/ec2a1816-4737-46fc-b634-f1b26be6a17d/7D30A5F6-8EB8-4195-8A69-EC3155E5F59C/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JC19Dj01.html" href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JC19Dj01.html" style="font-size: 11px;">www.atimes.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JC19Dj01.html"><DIV>On August 27, 2006, this 
                              column suggested that US house prices would fall 
                              by 15% nationwide, peak to trough. On March 11, 
                              2007, this column suggested that the total bad 
                              debt loss from the mortgage crisis would be about 
                              US$1 trillion. At a meeting at the American 
                              Enterprise Institute Wednesday, it became clear 
                              that in both cases I was not pessimistic enough. 
                              Sorry! </DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JC19Dj01.html"><DIV>This is not a 
                              pretty picture. The losses to come are probably 
                              large enough to wipe out the banking system, and 
                              the interconnected network caused by modern 
                              finance is sufficiently fragile that the failure 
                              of any one major house, if carried out through 
                              normal bankruptcy processes, would be sufficient 
                              to bring down the world economy as a whole. 
                              </DIV></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/7D30A5F6-8EB8-4195-8A69-EC3155E5F59C/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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