The Google to $100 scenario...


	The Google to $100 scenario...

egoldstein

1-12-2006 1:01 AM

363 views

tags:

google, stock market, henry blodget, internet, technology

egoldstein says:

a good "what if" analysis. he's not predicting that it will happen, just laying out the case for how it could.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/bb1831d4-7aba-4ae1-8f5a-b47a4a6e50e8/769FBD3E-C045-4698-A966-B586ACDF2542/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/01/google_the_bear.html" href="http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/01/google_the_bear.html" style="font-size: 11px;">www.internetoutsider.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/01/google_the_bear.html"><P><a   href="http://internetoutsider.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/bear.jpg"><img title="Bear" alt="Bear" src="http://www.internetoutsider.com/images/bear.jpg" style="margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px; float: left;" border="0" height="95" width="100"></a> No one else is writing this piece, so it will have to be me.&nbsp; I should say upfront that I'm not <em>predicting </em>that this will happen (yet), and I'm certainly not making a recommendation.&nbsp; I'm just laying out a scenario that could kneecap Google and take its stock back to, say, $100 a share.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/01/google_the_bear.html"><P>Google's major weakness is that it is almost entirely dependent on one, high-margin revenue stream.&nbsp; The company has dozens of cool products, but with the exception of AdWords, none of them generate meaningful revenue.&nbsp; From an intermediate-term financial perspective, therefore, they are irrelevant.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/01/google_the_bear.html"><P>So, the question is, what could happen to AdWords, and what will happen to the company (and stock) if it does?</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/769FBD3E-C045-4698-A966-B586ACDF2542/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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