masbury says: Most of 53 economists believe the recession is over and that Bernanke gets credit If they keep repeating it over and over again and loudly enough just maybe all of those unemployed people will believe it. Pop more for disenchantedcitizen's comment than for the overly-optimistic prediction. (I hope these economists are right. I'd love to be wrong on this. But I think we're still facing some very difficult times.) I don't think they are suggesting that unemployment is better - recession has to do with trade and commerce, and employment is a lagging result of it. Unemployment is a difficult issue that is going to be a slow one, I'm afraid. But I don't think there is any deception intended in stating that the economic indicators by which the technical term "recession" is determined are abating. And that is an important and almost unbelievably surprising first step toward full recovery, and full employment, which are virtually impossible without first moving the economy to stopping the backwards movement of recession. Maybe the fire is finally out, and now some re-building can start. Most people are absolutely clueless how close we were to economic free fall. Historians will heap much praise on Bernanke and the Obama administration in future days. Like Lexica, I hope I'm wrong on this. Maybe I've been reading Daily Reckoning too often but I feel we're (as with us outside the United States too) in for more pain yet. This might be just a temporary upswing in the charts - something that won't be sustained for long. Certainly could be. But an awful lot of recession is about fear, so I'm glad for whatever encouragement can be found. |
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