The shape of the recovery


	The shape of the recovery

JICWyllie

1-8-2009 1:46 PM

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tags:

economy, i-recovery, i-forecast

JICWyllie says:

Will Obama help people see the risks, or try to cover them up with happy talk as politicians have always done?

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/7cb4b8bf-8354-4045-b434-a98d737127e1/6B78B0FE-5384-465E-8571-04BEA2F3C72C/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://postcarbon.org/shape_recovery" href="http://postcarbon.org/shape_recovery" style="font-size: 11px;">postcarbon.org</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://postcarbon.org/shape_recovery"><P>An <A href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGrsZwH6s4KY&refer=home">article on the Bloomberg website</A> today suggests that Asia will have a "V-shape" recovery from the current economic crisis, rebounding in 2010. This is opposed to a "U-shape" recovery, which would presumably take a little longer.</p> <P>May I suggest another alphabetic possibility? What if the "recovery," not just in Asia, but globally, is shaped more like a big capital L?</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://postcarbon.org/shape_recovery">Oil is by no means the only limit to growth—we are in the era of <A href="http://globalpublicmedia.com/richard_heinbergs_museletter_peak_everything">Peak Everything</A>: topsoil, water, fish, minerals, you name it. But oil is the single limiting factor that will matter most, soonest.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://postcarbon.org/shape_recovery">But it's also important to understand the bigger shape of the historical moment we occupy. If we all think it's a V or a U, we will be wasting most of our effort, just as the US government is currently wasting hundreds of billions of dollars propping up the balance sheets of investment banks </blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://postcarbon.org/shape_recovery">There's only so much money and time available to us, and we need to use it strategically</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/6B78B0FE-5384-465E-8571-04BEA2F3C72C/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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