Turks feel twice as warm toward Iran as they do toward the United States.

Just 9 years ago, tens of thousands people used to demonstrate on the streets, walking and chanting slogans like "Turkey will never be an Iran!" The address of the message was very clear: the coalition government of conservative True Path Party and Islamist Welfare Party. Islamists could get (at most) 21 percent of votes in Turkey and there have always been a sharp reaction against them, coming from the secular majority. In 1996, the Macchiavelist manoeuvre of Ms Tansu Ciller, leader of the conservative True Path Party in those days, brought the Islamists to the government when a coalition government wa...

Turks feel twice as warm toward Iran as they do toward the United States.

Just 9 years ago, tens of thousands people used to demonstrate on the streets, walking and chanting slogans like "Turkey will never be an Iran!" The address of the message was very clear: the coalition government of conservative True Path Party and Islamist Welfare Party. Islamists could get (at most) 21 percent of votes in Turkey and there have always been a sharp reaction against them, coming from the secular majority. In 1996, the Macchiavelist manoeuvre of Ms Tansu Ciller, leader of the conservative True Path Party in those days, brought the Islamists to the government when a coalition government was established between the two parties. It could stay at the office for less than two years and the supporters of the True Path Party punished the leadership by pulling their votes back at the next general elections. TPP lost about 30 percent of its votes. And in 1999, a secular coalition government took the office.

Islamists never had the potential to win a general election in Turkey and will never have. This may sound confusing when considering the AKP's 2002 victory but the circumstances were very different. First, AKP tried its best to introduce itself as a modern and "moderate Islamist" party - much like an average conservative party of the west. Its leader tried to make the public sure that he was a true defender of secularism. Second, the people was tired of corrupted right wing governments and there were not a powerful and promising left party (still there isn't any.) Voting for AKP was seen to express the unhappiness and reactions: voters punished all the parties by electing the "young and untried" AKP.

And now, the second part. An average Turkish citizen frowns as soon as you begin to talk about the regime in Iran. The Mullahs' administration has always been disliked in Turkey.

(continues)

After the 1980 revolution, most of the Turks looked towards Iran with fearful eyes. Many saw this as an unfortunate "disaster" for their neighbors. There have never been even a tiny sign of sympathy for Mullahs here, from the very beginning. Seculars always pointed to the Iran regime, as a terrifying example of fundamentalism. Tahran's Ayetollahs have always been the source of a dark nightmare for the urban population. Of course, a narrow percentage of the public, probably 10 percent or a little more, have sympathized Iran's "Islamic Republic" but for the majority, it was horrible.

Then we have to ask "Why Turks began to look warmer to Iran?" Why now? It's very obvious: Simultaneously, Turk...

After the 1980 revolution, most of the Turks looked towards Iran with fearful eyes. Many saw this as an unfortunate "disaster" for their neighbors. There have never been even a tiny sign of sympathy for Mullahs here, from the very beginning. Seculars always pointed to the Iran regime, as a terrifying example of fundamentalism. Tahran's Ayetollahs have always been the source of a dark nightmare for the urban population. Of course, a narrow percentage of the public, probably 10 percent or a little more, have sympathized Iran's "Islamic Republic" but for the majority, it was horrible.

Then we have to ask "Why Turks began to look warmer to Iran?" Why now? It's very obvious: Simultaneously, Turks began to grow doubts about the U.S.A. The last four years have changed many things for "man on the street" in Turkey. In 1999, most of the public opinion about the U.S. president (Bill Clinton) was very positive. Now very few of the Turks trust George Bush. There is a growing anger against Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice. The present U.S. administration is seen as a "stormbringer" to the Middle East, after the "preemptive war" strategy and occupation of Iraq. (No need to mention that Islamists have been trying to use this public feeling against secularism.)

Turks would never accept to leave under a regime like Iran's; and the majority still dislikes the Mullahs. Ahmedinejad has no sympathizer in Turkey, the overwhelming majority thinks he is a mad man. So, if Turkish public began to look warmer to Iran, it's nothing to do with Islamism: it's the reaction against the recent U.S. international policies.

Turks are really strange people. We don't like a big guy beating a weak, little man, in front of us and we tend to show our reaction. The only thing I worry that this "political climate" would shake the stability and consistency in Turkish politics in the short term.