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	Survivor bias

pjnasser

12-4-2008 1:04 PM

82 views

tags:

statistics

pjnasser says:

Very good label. Read the start of the article for his account of a great con, as well.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/d53d9319-b1b0-4686-9271-b023e5fb3784/58175C31-E6C3-4EB1-AC1D-BC67B2177292/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article5275767.ece" href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article5275767.ece" style="font-size: 11px;">www.timesonline.co.uk</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article5275767.ece">survivor bias. It is
true that a number of famous successful people have spent 10,000 hours
practising. However, it is also true that many people we have never heard of
because they weren't successful also practised for 10,000 hours. And that
there are successful people who were very good without practising for 10,000
hours before their breakthrough (the Rolling Stones, say). And Gordon Brown
isn't very good at being Prime Minister despite preparing for 10,000 hours
</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/58175C31-E6C3-4EB1-AC1D-BC67B2177292/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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