Maybe it is true that Americans are as blind as some in Think Tanks, the Military and some elements in the news media think. I hope not. But it could take 3,000-5,000 deaths of US Troops and no resolution to lack of leadership and sustained improvement in Afghanistan.

In Iraq, they at least had some experience with actually having control over administering their nation. So, regardless of how well democracy turns out there, Iraq is unlikely to disintegrate.

There has been an Afghanistan on the map for centuries but there has never really been any history or experience of sustained administrative control over the state. Control over Kabul and a few of the major cities yes but most of the people and land have only experience with tribal and war lord governance. Traditionally, they only unify to fight outsiders (the Russians and US/NATO/Britain of late), or cultural threats to traditional culture and power relationships (Westernization/Taliban).

Declare victory after the electio