<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/f1d9f148-e20f-48ae-aa7a-9d78704eb35d/5038CE0D-2F19-4CA6-89D7-61B5DE10879F/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-will-we-know-by-7-pm.html" href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-will-we-know-by-7-pm.html" style="font-size: 11px;">www.fivethirtyeight.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-will-we-know-by-7-pm.html"><BLOCKQUOTE>Now, what if the vote margin in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky were to equal the expected -5.7%? We pipe this assumption through our model by calculating, for each of our 10,000 simulations, the average vote margin in these five states, and then restricting our analysis to the subset of simulations for which this vote margin is within 1 percentage point of its expected value (that is, between -6.7% and -4.7%). Out of our 10,000 simulations, 2800 fall in this range; that is, we predict there is a 28% chance that McCain’s average vote margin in these five states will be between 4.7% and 6.7%. What is of more interest is what happens if this occurs. Considering this subset of simulations, Obama’s expected national popular vote margin is +4.7%, his expected electoral vote total is 343, and the conditional probability of an Obama victory is 100%: he wins the electoral college in all 2800 simulations in this condition. </BLOCKQUOTE></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/5038CE0D-2F19-4CA6-89D7-61B5DE10879F/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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