Age expectancy - or when am I scheduled to die?


	Age expectancy - or when am I scheduled to die?

PatParslow

8-8-2009 9:32 PM

85 views

tags:

model, mortality

PatParslow says:

Not today, it seems. Bit cheeky amplifying my own post, but a clip from @egoldstein reminded me about it

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/70faf9a0-87b6-48c4-8095-466d8219b6c6/4AA61B30-DE73-4C48-8FDC-1F3D77F0B4F0/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://brains.parslow.net/node/1478" href="http://brains.parslow.net/node/1478" style="font-size: 11px;">brains.parslow.net</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://brains.parslow.net/node/1478"><H2 class="with-tabs">Age expectancy</H2></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://brains.parslow.net/node/1478">The <A href="http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=8841">National Statistics Office publish this information</A>, but something has always intrigued me - their figures don't take account of the future trends - so what happens if you try to model future performance based on the past?</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://brains.parslow.net/node/1478"><div align="center"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/brains.parslow.net/img/096C1FEC-0E73-438E-9586-D45EF0BCFF4E" alt="" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://brains.parslow.net/node/1478"><P>This looks like a fairly straight line, and indeed we can fit it with y=0.2648x+67.871 (R^2 = 0.9944) which means I am <I>actually</I> due to peg it at around 92 years of age.  Ignoring things like medical history and lifestyle, of course, as these are averages from the population we are dealing with here.</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/4AA61B30-DE73-4C48-8FDC-1F3D77F0B4F0/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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