Monkey v Expert: Who makes better predictions?

Search Options	close
Search the following clips: All Clips

news science politics food economy art
technology health internet religion psychology

Sign Up Install Learn More Login


	Monkey v Expert: Who makes better predictions?

Communicator

3-29-2009 3:52 AM

200 views

1 Comment |

Add a Comment

3-29-2009 10:57 AM

tanyamm

Very interesting read. I always thought the experts weren't always up to their own hype.

Login to Comment. Not a member yet? Sign up

Today's Top Clips

visit the Top Clips page

View the Top Clips from March 29, 2009

Embed This Clip In Your Site...

<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/d970bac9-a5f6-4fd2-8160-1c60ddc41cf5/310946FB-330F-4DD6-9B73-588CB4DF78DA/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#" style="font-size: 11px;">www.nytimes.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#"><NYT_HEADLINE type=" " version="1.0">
Learning How to Think
</NYT_HEADLINE></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#"><P>Ever wonder how financial experts could lead the world over the economic cliff?</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#"><P>One explanation is that so-called experts turn out to be, in many situations, a stunningly poor source of expertise. There’s evidence that what matters in making a sound forecast or decision isn’t so much knowledge or experience as good judgment  —  or, to be more precise, the way a person’s mind works. </P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#"><P>The expert on experts is Philip Tetlock, <A title="Professor Tetlock’s faculty page" href="http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/tetlock.html">a professor</A> at the University of California, Berkeley. His 2005 book, “Expert Political Judgment,” is based on two decades of tracking some 82,000 predictions by 284 experts. The experts’ forecasts were tracked both on the subjects of their specialties and on subjects that they knew little about.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/opinion/26Kristof.html?_r=1&em#"><P>The result? The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses  —  the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/310946FB-330F-4DD6-9B73-588CB4DF78DA/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

New from the makers of Clipmarks: Amplify.com - Don't just share the news...Amplify it!

Clipmarks: Home; New Clips; Top Clips; Dashboard

Popular Topics: News; Life; Science; Technology; Entertainment

Get Started: Sign Up; Install Clipping Tool; How Clipping Works; Clip-to-Blog™; ClipSearch

Tools and Resources: FAQ; ClipWeek; Top Clippers; Top Tags; Site Map

About Clipmarks: About Us; Contact; Copyright; Privacy; EULA

Search Options

Today's Top Clips