Articles like this are a necessary counterweight to media coverage that forgets that the next election isn't being held today. I disagree with the author's third reason for skepticism, though. Basically, presidential elections are referenda on the national mood, in which little about the opposition matters. If things aren't going well enough, the incumbent party loses. Frankly, unless the Republicans run somebody with bipartisan charisma or a national hero in 2012, the identity and platform of Obama's opponent won't matter. I'm not sure we have any universal national heroes out there, and this "partisan age" doesn't produce people with bipartisan charisma.