The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic


	The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic

kmcolo

4-30-2009 3:00 PM

196 views

tags:

flu, pandemic

kmcolo says:

Nothing to add here other than I am about to board a flight to S.F. then to Bangkok tomorrow.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/f0fafab8-fa27-419e-9c12-a939856dab64/27CC3154-8C76-4811-87F7-6379FFBD8DDA/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=04&year=2009&base_name=is_joe_biden_right_about_swine" href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=04&year=2009&base_name=is_joe_biden_right_about_swine" style="font-size: 11px;">www.prospect.org</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=04&year=2009&base_name=is_joe_biden_right_about_swine"><P>Last night, I spent some time with Arin Dutta's "<A href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1096847">The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic: A Literature Review</A>." The overview was prepared for the World Bank. In it, Dutta argues that the key variable in determining the spread of an infection is the "base reproduction rate," defined as the number of secondary infections produced by a primary infection. In other words, if one person has the flu, then on average, the base reproduction rate measures how many people will catch the flu from him. Lowering that rate is the key to pandemic response. And lowering that rate requires things like "forcing or urging people to limit contacts, encouraging hand washing or other personal hygiene, or promoting the use of facemasks." Some of it sounds trivial. But it matters. If the reproduction rate falls beneath 1, "the epidemic usually dies out." But even small variations in the rate can have large impacts, as you see in this chart:</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/27CC3154-8C76-4811-87F7-6379FFBD8DDA/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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