FiveThirtyEight's Final Electoral Projection

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	FiveThirtyEight's Final Electoral Projection

Andrew Farrell

11-4-2008 1:40 PM

914 views

Andrew Farrell says:

For the past nine months FiveThirtyEight.com tirelessly gathered data from the many, many polls around and used that to project election results.

Until now, we've really had no way of seeing how accurate those projections are. Late tonight/early tomorrow we should know.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/0df12579-4dda-4a99-a111-6e369bd48efa/26081573-6265-4D55-AFF7-E41AA6DE4144/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html" href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html" style="font-size: 11px;">www.fivethirtyeight.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html"><H3 class="post-title">
<A href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html">Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189</A>
</H3></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html"><DIV>It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America.  The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain.  Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.</DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html">Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana.  These states total 353 electoral votes.  Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.<SPAN id="fullpost"><BR /></SPAN></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/26081573-6265-4D55-AFF7-E41AA6DE4144/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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