Internet Growth Slowing, Warns The Economist


	Internet Growth Slowing, Warns The Economist

Elizabeth Woyke

12-8-2008 6:55 PM

747 views

tags:

internet, economist

Elizabeth Woyke says:

Internet traffic is growing 50-60% per annum, down from 100% (a few years ago), says a University of Minnesota computer scientist. The danger: the slowdown could ding ISP revenues and innovation, generally.

The article also says the exaflood is passe. Next up: the zettaflood!

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/020005cc-030a-4862-b469-778680bbeeec/18FD728D-BCFA-48A7-B73E-BFEEBCE5A885/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221" href="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221" style="font-size: 11px;">www.economist.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221"><H1>Surviving the exaflood</H1></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221"><H2>The internet: Predictions that an “exaflood” of traffic will overload the internet have been doing the rounds. But will it really happen?</H2></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221">VIDEO killed the radio star. Might its next victim be the internet? The popularity of <A title=" (opens in a new window) " href="http://www.youtube.com" target="_blank">YouTube</A>, <A title=" (opens in a new window) " href="http://www.bittorrent.com" target="_blank">BitTorrent</A> and other online-video services has prompted many gloomy prophesies that the net is on the verge of collapsing under the load.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221">It all sounds worrying. But according to Andrew Odlyzko, a computer scientist at the University of Minnesota who specialises in analysing historical trends in networking, the actual rate of traffic growth is much lower than this—and seems to be decreasing, not increasing. </blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221">Perversely, the real threat may come from a reduction in internet-traffic growth, says Dr Odlyzko. Too little internet traffic, he contends, could prove to be more dangerous to the industry than too much.</blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12673221">Accordingly, says Dr Odlyzko, the industry should be looking for ways to stimulate traffic growth, rather than limit it.</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/18FD728D-BCFA-48A7-B73E-BFEEBCE5A885/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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