<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/d66b01d1-e797-4783-82b3-1b8ecd48c0e4/052235EC-F153-4FC5-9651-D58871730157/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789" style="font-size: 11px;">en.wikipedia.org</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><P>The <B>Black Swan Theory</B> (in <A title="Nassim Nicholas Taleb" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb" linkindex="18">Nassim Nicholas Taleb's</A> version) refers to high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations. Unlike the philosophical "<A title="Falsifiability" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability#Inductive_categorical_inference" linkindex="19">black swan problem</A>", the "Black Swan Theory" (capitalized) refers only to events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. "Black Swan" events are considered extreme <A title="Outlier" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier" linkindex="20">outliers</A>. Note that in his writings Taleb never uses the phrase "Black Swan Theory"; instead, he refers to "Black Swan Events" (capitalized).</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><DIV class="dablink">For Taleb's book on the subject, see <A title="The Black Swan (Taleb book)" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_(Taleb_book)" linkindex="5">The Black Swan</A>.</DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><P>Based on the author's criteria:</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">The event is a surprise.</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">The event has a major impact.</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;">After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;"><A rel="nofollow" title="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html" class="external text" href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html" linkindex="103">The Fourth Quadrant and The Limits of Statistics</A> -Taleb's idea on the limits of statistics</LI></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Black_swan_theory&oldid=311255789"><li style="margin-left:16px;padding-left: 0px;"><A rel="nofollow" title="http://www.buzzle.com/articles/135661.html" class="external text" href="http://www.buzzle.com/articles/135661.html" linkindex="104">The Black Swan Theory of Chance</A> - A treatise regarding unpredictable aspects of life. Guardian Newspapers, August 2008.</LI></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/052235EC-F153-4FC5-9651-D58871730157/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content8.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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