Demograpic Projections And Trade Implications


	Demograpic Projections And Trade Implications

Forbes Markets

5-15-2008 7:33 AM

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tags:

china, demographics, trade, economic growth

Forbes Markets says:

Fascinating post on the China Financial Markets post about the demographics crunch China will face that should give every China bull pause for thought.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/5fc7ccf0-1ed7-4e27-b223-8f1ecc08c003/0198E641-ED5F-4A88-8D75-8BB6E56AEA9C/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/china-financial-markets/blog/Demographic-projections-and-trad.htm" href="http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/china-financial-markets/blog/Demographic-projections-and-trad.htm" style="font-size: 11px;">piaohaoreport.sampasite.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/china-financial-markets/blog/Demographic-projections-and-trad.htm">thanks to the baby boom in the 1950s and the implementation of the one-child policy beginning in the mid-1970s, China has enjoyed a huge demographic dividend beginning around 1970 or so, when people of working age comprised around 51% of the working population (one worker for every non-worker), to 2015, when they will comprise around 65% of the total population (one and one-half workers for every non-worker). <SPAN> </SPAN>Their share is then expected to decline to around 56% of the population by the middle of the century.<SPAN> </SPAN></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/china-financial-markets/blog/Demographic-projections-and-trad.htm">this has important implications both for nominal growth rates and per capita growth rates in the next few decades.<SPAN></SPAN></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://piaohaoreport.sampasite.com/china-financial-markets/blog/Demographic-projections-and-trad.htm">beginning some time in the next decade, China’s working population will begin to grow more slowly (or shrink more quickly) than its total population, suggesting that the demographic dividend it has enjoyed during the past three decades will become a demographic tax. <SPAN> </SPAN>Per capita income, in other words, will grow more slowly than the growth in worker productivity.<SPAN></SPAN></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/0198E641-ED5F-4A88-8D75-8BB6E56AEA9C/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content8.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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