Chicago statistician predicts Obama win

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	Chicago statistician predicts Obama win

wiccantexan

10-28-2008 8:49 PM

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obama, statistics, election

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/88de6108-6450-4478-a7b1-9f1416f6f6c1/0131C3E6-81D2-47F8-B03F-01532E3A6FE1/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story" href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story" style="font-size: 11px;">www.chicagotribune.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story"><DIV>
Last spring he was a sports statistics savant virtually unknown outside the world of obsessive baseball fans. Now he dreams about hiring a personal assistant. With the election eight days away, the Chicagoan has become one of the most sought-after election analysts in the country, thanks to a computer program he built to blend poll results, demographics and political trends.</DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story"><DIV>
Silver boldly predicted a <A href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/obama/"> Barack Obama</A> victory months ago. As of Sunday, he's 96.7 percent sure of that. He breaks down the numbers into a dizzying array of scenarios: On Sunday, he sees a 4.75 percent chance of <A id="PEPLT004278" title="John McCain" href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/politics/elections/u.s.-elections/john-mccain-PEPLT004278.topic" class="taxInlineTagLink">John McCain</A> winning the popular vote. There's a 2.13 percent chance of Obama losing the popular vote but winning the most electoral votes. There's a 0.25 percent chance of a tie in <A id="ORGOV000091" title="U.S. Electoral College" href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/politics/elections/u.s.-elections/u.s.-electoral-college-ORGOV000091.topic" class="taxInlineTagLink">the Electoral College</A>.</DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story"><DIV>
Now Silver's political Web site, <B><A target="new" href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/">FiveThirtyEight.com</A></B>, is a must-read for political wonks.</DIV></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/0131C3E6-81D2-47F8-B03F-01532E3A6FE1/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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